Epidemic Simulation

Model and simulate the spread of an epidemic.

← Differential Equations projects

Learn Mathematics Differential Equations

Question

How can the flow between population groups help us predict an epidemic?

The model follows people as they move from susceptible to infected to recovered.
The model follows people as they move from susceptible to infected to recovered.

Goals

  • Build and modify an SIR model for the spread of disease.
  • Compare simulated curves with real data and test changes in transmission.

Method

Turn the movement of people between health groups into a system of equations.

  • Define susceptible, infected, and recovered groups with transmission and recovery rates.
  • Solve the system numerically with Euler's method or a Runge–Kutta method.
  • Change the rates, compare the results with data, and discuss what the model leaves out.

Try an example

Virus!

Source code ↗ Open full screen ↗

An agent-based epidemic example in which contact changes agents from healthy to exposed, infected, and recovered.

Controls: Press Enter to start. The colours show each agent’s current state.