COVID-19 Spread Modelling with Differential Equations

A guided research project in Mathematical Modelling.

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Experience Research Mathematical Modelling

Question

How well can a modified compartment model explain real COVID-19 case data?

The gap between simulated and observed curves shows both useful structure and model limits.
The gap between simulated and observed curves shows both useful structure and model limits.

Goals

  • Build an SIR-based model suited to the chosen data.
  • Estimate parameters and compare policy or transmission scenarios.

Method

Represent disease spread as flows between population groups and fit those flows to observations.

  • Select compartments, rates, initial values, and a reliable time series.
  • Solve the differential equations and estimate parameters from the data.
  • Compare simulated curves with observations and test alternative assumptions.